7 December 2023 - Dr Nina Seega, Director of CISL’s Centre for Sustainable Finance, discusses the declarations already made in Dubai and why all eyes are now on the Global Stocktake wording
It’s half-time at the COP28 game. The first half surprised with a multitude of declaration announcements, global funding pledges and an agreement on Loss & Damage (L&D). We now need an equally strong finish.
Even before the welcome addresses were delivered, the decision on operationalising the Loss & Damage Fund was announced. This was an important investment first agreed in Egypt at COP27 and became a historic moment for countries that suffer most from climate destruction. Those which have contributed least to the climate crisis, yet are expected to bear the brunt of its impacts.
Industrialised nations listened and stepped up. COP28’s host country, the United Arab Emirates, pledged USD $100 million while Germany, Italy and France promised $108 m – and the US offered $17.5 m. In total, the pledges now come to an impressive $725 m. This begs the question, will COP28 be remembered as the first time the world stood up to defend its developing and vulnerable economies? It has definitely set a hopeful tone for the fortnight to come.
The big talking points for the rest of the conference will now revolve around two words in the Global Stocktake (GST): whether to phase out or to phase down fossil fuels. Which fuels will be included? Oil, gas, coal – and what about unabated coal?
The draft text for the Global Stocktake (a report that measures progress towards the critical 1.5 degree Paris Agreement) started doing the rounds on Energy Day in week one. Reactions were initially mixed. The inclusion of three possible options – an ‘orderly and just phase out’ of fossil fuels; rapid phase out of unabated coal power this decade; or no mention of fossil fuels at all – divided the commentators. Many support the first option but more worry that the ‘no text’ option 3 could prevail. As world leaders have now departed, the decision is currently in the hands of the negotiators, and then ministers in week two, to accelerate efforts. It’s all to play for.
But what else is going on? Have other declarations been lost in the noise?
Progress has been made on the food and agriculture agenda, with 134 countries signing up to the UAE Declaration on Sustainable Agriculture, Resilient Food Systems, and Climate Action, committing to incorporating 1.5C-aligned food systems into their nationally determined contributions (NDCs). The Global Pledge on Renewables and Energy Efficiency, signed by 118 countries, agreed to triple global renewable energy capacity by 2030 - a big win. And in a first for a COP, a thematic day dedicated to health was added to the programme, with a UAE declaration on Climate, Relief, Recovery and Peace announced.
So far, the strongest player in the game has been finance. The COP28 UAE Declaration on Climate Finance has been endorsed by 13 countries. Climate-resilient debt clauses were issued by international financial institutions and countries, including the UK. Essentially that means they have the ability to pause debt payments if hit by climate shocks.
Among the many financial pledges announced, the UAE announced $30 billion in public funding to mobilise $250 bn of private funding in emerging markets and developing economies.
The conference is by no means over. We’re still waiting for some very big decisions in week two. Text on the first Global Goal on Adaptation (GGA), also part of the Paris Agreement, was rejected by developing countries for not reflecting their submissions and for watering down work on locally led adaptation. There was no mention of associated L&D in relation to adaptation, which needs to go hand in hand, and no mention of national biodiversity plans.
As for those two little words? Will ‘down’ be out and ‘out’ be in? This is the outcome we need.
