Africa’s Gas Road to Nowhere: South Africa’s Policy Debate on Using Gas to Accelerate the Energy Transition

25 September 2024 – Our CLG Africa policy paper examines the complex debate on gas use as transition fuel to accelerate South Africa’s renewable energy transition

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This paper addresses South Africa's critical need to reassess its energy transition strategy, as the country faces increasing pressure to meet its 2050 climate goals. It explores whether natural gas can truly serve as a bridge to a low-carbon future. With gas currently viewed as a key transitional fuel, the brief evaluates its geopolitical, environmental and economic risks while highlighting the greater potential of renewable energy alternatives like solar, wind, and accelerating green hydrogen production.

The paper finds that:

  • Although gas carbon emissions are lower than coal, it is not as clean as alternative renewable energy sources. Methane leaks in the natural gas supply chain is undercounted. It also finds that greener alternatives like solar, wind, and battery storage, offer lower emissions and greater job creation potential compared to gas.
  • The geopolitical landscape, including the Russia-Ukraine war, has created new opportunities for gas exports in Africa. However, the paper shows that pursuing large-scale gas development could result in stranded assets, due to global shifts toward renewables and green hydrogen.
  • Governance risks pose a real problem, pointing to past conflicts around gas projects in Mozambique.
  • The green hydrogen economy combined with lithium production, could create up to 94,000 jobs, far surpassing potential employment in the gas sector.
  • South Africa has a competitive advantage in green hydrogen and renewable energy technologies due to its location and natural resources, which could attract significant global investment and lead to continental market leadership if prioritized over gas.

The paper strongly advocates for a shift away from gas and stronger investments in renewables and green hydrogen positioning them as better options to support South Africa’s just energy transition.

The report was developed using a range of primary and secondary sources. Insights were also gathered from key industry and government stakeholders through

deliberations hosted by the Corporate Affairs Leadership Forum, our Johannesburg-based CLG Africa chapter.

Citing this report

University of Cambridge Institute for Sustainability Leadership. (2024). Africa’s Gas Road to Nowhere (Cambridge, UK: University of Cambridge Institute for Sustainability Leadership).