Projected Impact of climate change on household diets in Kenya

 30 Sept 2025 – This policy brief, produced by CISL and the University of Leeds, assesses the impacts of projected 2050 climate scenarios on food production and nutrition security in Kenya, using both national and subnational data from Busia County in Western Kenya.

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By 2050, climate change is expected to reduce maize yields in Kenya, threatening food and nutrition security. This analysis uses Cost of the Diet and iFEED tools to assess possible 2050 national food production scenarios – based on the current market-oriented agricultural policy and an alternative crop diversification approach. Results show persistent micronutrient gaps (iron, zinc and calcium) and rising diet costs, making even basic calorie-adequate diets unaffordable for poor families in Kenya by 2050.

There is a need to prioritise addressing persistent nutrient gaps (particularly iron and zinc for infants) and raising diet costs through affordable foods. Policy must urgently shift from maize dependency towards climate-resilient staples and nutrient-dense crops, while expanding support for child nutrition and household affordability to ensure food systems meet future nutrition and health needs for the population.

Citing this report 

Nabwire, Florence, Jennings, Stewart, Sarku, Rebecca, Schofield, Lilly, Nabade, Scholastic, Moturi, Frank, Mudavadi, Patrick, Challinor, Andy, and Whitfield, Stephen (2025). Projected impact of climate change on household diets in Kenya: Insights from Busia County, Kenya. Cambridge, UK; Cambridge Institute for Sustainability Leadership.