24 July 2025 – The first in our new Future Visions series, a new report by CISL Fellow Paul Gilding argues that a major market-driven disruption of the global food system is not only imminent but already underway, challenging industry assumptions and highlighting both the risks and opportunities of inevitable transformation.
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About
The core premise of this paper "Renewable Food: A Transformed and Renewable Food System Is Now Possible," is that the global food and agricultural system is about to undergo a major market disruption which will lead to a system transformation of major historical significance.
This is not a paper about theoretical potential, or things we could or should do. It is a paper arguing a market disruption is inevitable and has already begun, but will accelerate rapidly in the coming decade.
The report argues that this unfolding disruption is driven by two converging forces: the collapse of large scale agriculture under mounting environmental pressures, and the rise of innovative food production technologies that offer cheaper, healthier, and more secure alternatives.
The report highlights that industrial farming is reaching its physical and environmental limits. Climate change, water scarcity, soil degradation, and land constraints are combining to make the current system unsustainable and incapable of meeting projected demand, which is expected to rise by 35–56% by 2050. This, the paper contends, will result in escalating food supply shocks, inflation, and geopolitical instability.
Simultaneously emerging food technologies are enabling the production of food without traditional agriculture. These approaches are already gaining traction and are well positioned to accelerate due to their economic competitiveness and food security benefits.
The paper paints a timely picture of the systemic global risks posed by food supply shocks, with potentially drastic consequences. It could be that the worst end of these possibilities will be how this unfolds, with a dystopian world emerging. It also paints a picture of a realistic opportunity for a very different outcome. This is a disruptive but ultimately positive transition to a ‘renewable food’ system, where the supply of food, the single most critical foundation of a stable and prosperous society, can be secured.
This disruption will not end food production as we know it, but it will significantly reshape industrial agriculture—especially factory-farmed meat and large-scale monocultures—while introducing new winners and losers in a rapidly evolving market landscape. The paper calls for a proactive, managed transition to minimize social upheaval and ensure a just and equitable transformation.
This paper, framed by insights from CISL’s Competing in the Age of Disruption aims to be a provocation to the industry, policymakers and experts to imagine a different future, highlighting the lack of focus on both the risk of a global food crisis and the opportunity for genuine food system transformation. It argues transformational change in the food industry is not just likely, but largely inevitable for two intersecting and now unstoppable reasons.
The paper is part of a new ‘Future Visions’ series designed to provide provoke new thinking on the future of critical systems and sectors during an age of disruption. Authored by leading thinkers from inside and outside CISL these pieces are not designed to represent the institutional view of CISL, nor are they a simple extrapolation of past data, but are intended to set out future visions and pathways for a sustainable economy and society, whilst the future is uncertain and the pathways are in question. The intention is to challenge assumptions, highlight risks and opportunities on future pathways to a sustainable economy; sparking fresh dialogue among business leaders, academics, policy makers and innovators in an age of disruption and transition.
Citing this report
Gilding, P (2025). Renewable Food - A Transformed and Renewable Food System Is Now Possible. Cambridge, UK: University of Cambridge Institute for Sustainability Leadership
