25 November 2024 - In the early hours of Sunday morning, COP29 came to a close with a deal. Though this didn't seem likely at times during the negotiations, our CISL experts examine what the deal means and what comes next.
From the absence of the wording ‘fossil fuels’ in the text and a lower than hoped New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG) of US $300bn, to a long-awaited deal on carbon markets and several ambitious Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) announced, notably from the UK.
"We need more collective leadership and ambition"
First, Chief Systems Change Officer, Eliot Whittington, discusses the overall outcome:
“These negotiations limped over the line with some shreds of progress, but represent baby steps forward when we need to be picking up the pace. Baku was billed as the ‘finance COP’, where new resources would be mobilised to support the most vulnerable countries and communities. However, in a badly managed set of talks that flirted with collapse, countries made only minimal progress – setting a new financial target that represents little increase in resources over what’s required to keep up with inflation, while widening the pool of ways to contribute to it. They have also called for a much more ambitious plan to be developed for next year’s COP, so there’s still room to do more.
“In a year where many elections around the world delivered a shift away from international collaboration towards nationalist isolation, and where multilateralism seems in danger with a weak G20 and a collapsed biodiversity COP, we are at a dangerous moment. We need more collaboration internationally and we need more leaders willing to make the case for it. COP29 did little to increase faith in a difficult and slow-moving process. Indeed, in dropping the explicit naming of fossil fuels as the source of climate problems, in many eyes the talks will have gone backwards. But dialogue and discussion are vital tools for collective progress, and we need more collective leadership and ambition to raise the pace of action.
“Beyond the negotiations it is worth noting that COP29 did include a huge range of positive discussions and interventions. Countries including the UK, Indonesia, Brazil and Mexico made commitments demonstrating real leadership. And the huge presence of business and civil society outside the direct negotiations showed that the green economy is alive and kicking and developing new plans to build and grow.”
Agreement on New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG)
With COP29 being dubbed the ‘finance COP’, the agreement of a New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG) was essential for the success of this year’s climate convention. The final figure of US $300bn per year, agreed in the early hours of this morning, is analysed by our Director, Dr Nina Seega:
“COP29 was always going to be measured by two yardsticks: the ambition around the reset of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) and the amount of finance agreed to help developing countries mitigate, adapt to and compensate for losses from climate change. Coming at the end of what looks like another hottest year on record, the Baku COP kicked off with an agreement on carbon markets which, while not perfect, has been a long time coming and so was seen as a positive sign.
“While the final figure for the NCQG of US $300bn is lower than what was expected from Baku, provisions around mobilisation of finance to Least Developed Countries and Small Island Developing States - along with the launch of a Baku to Belem roadmap to drive the figure closer to US $1.3tn per year - made it a palatable compromise. An ambitious vision of the future, however, it was not.
“As ever, the pressure will need to stay to ensure that Baku to Belem roadmap delivers tangible results and lifts the finance goal much closer to the needs of developing countries. This will entail rewiring our financial architecture to allow public and private finance to flow seamlessly to where it is needed most. It also means aligning all financial flows with Sustainable Development Goals.
“All of this will only be possible with ambitious leadership, skilful diplomacy and a commitment to drive sustainability into every financial and economic decision in 2025 and beyond.”
As COP29 came to a close in the early hours of this morning, we examine the role of the UK in the final outcome. While the overall agreement fell short on what was hoped, the UK’s Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) announcement in week one of an 81% decrease in economy-wide greenhouse gas emissions by 2035, compared to 1990 levels, has set it on its path to net zero, encouraging other countries to follow suit with ambitious statements.
"The UK has shown it is back as a global climate leader"
Our UK Corporate Leaders Group Director, Beverley Cornaby, explores what this means for UK climate leadership:
“At a time when global climate leadership was desperately needed and the overarching COP29 outcome - particularly on finance - is disappointingly unambitious, the UK has shown it is back as a global climate leader. As one of just a few parties that came forward early with an enhanced, 1.5-aligned NDC target, the UK has set a high bar for others to follow. However, for the UK to firmly regain its position as a climate leader, it also needs to deploy action, and fast.
“The announcements the UK made during COP29 show how it is ensuring implementation happens via the alliances and initiatives it is leading or part of. This includes launching the Global Clean Power Alliance and signing the Global Energy Storage and Grids Pledge. As well as financial pledges of over £300m new support for poorer countries.
“The UK has demonstrated that even if the COP process does not produce an ambitious outcome, it is still possible for strong leadership at a national level to support global goals. Over the coming months, pressure is needed for more of the parties to come forward with ambitious and investable NDCs. As governments will not be able to deliver these alone - with the need for the private sector to be on board - these should set out the critical role of business and unlocking private investment in supporting that implementation.”