COP30 may not have delivered the outcome climate science shows the world needs, but it demonstrated that the multilateral UN Paris Agreement process is alive, writes Corporate Leaders Group UK Director Bev Cornaby.
First published in BusinessGreen.
When a fire broke out at the COP30 summit venue hosting UN climate negotiations in Brazil last week, the metaphors wrote themselves.
Thankfully the fire itself quickly brought under control, only a small area suffered damage, and although 13 people were treated for smoke inhalation, there were no major injuries. Yet the urgency with which the incident was dealt with could scarcely have contrasted more with final the outcome of negotiations in Belém two days later, which saw countries only agreeing to a very weak text that failed to specifically set up the necessary talks on getting off fossil fuels and cutting deforestation - two of the biggest single drivers of climate change.
But in many ways, the fire at the COP30 venue and global media coverage the incident received was also symbolic of how we experience climate change. For many it only becomes reality when they either experience it themselves, or shocking images of the latest floods, fire, or droughts are shared on the news or social media. We are often somewhat removed from it in a direct sense, even though it impacts us all in some way or another – we just don't always make the connections.
But the connections and impacts on all of us are myriad and intensifying. Have you tried taking a summer holiday in southern Europe recently? Chances are you will have baked in the 40-plus degrees temperatures. Have you noticed the cost of food going up? Climate change is viewed as a contributory factor in food prices rising by up to 40 per cent in the last five years. Have you been subject to a hosepipe ban this year? A Europe-wide drought has led to increasingly strict restrictions on how we use water.
For many businesses it is the same, but it may be that they only fully take note when a climate change-related event happens to disrupt the business-as-usual. The cost of that lack of awareness can be high. Between October and December 2024, UK insurance claims for business interruption and damage to commercial properties due to weather events reached £102m, marking a 16 per cent year-on-year increase. Over the long-term that figure will only increase, with the cost of climate change projected to rise from 1.1 per cent of GDP at present to 3.3 per cent by 2050.
In the short term, meanwhile, the challenge facing business and homeowners alike is that the more frequently these events occur, the more uninsurable they become. This is a phenomenon known as the ‘protection gap', which was a key topic discussed at an event the Corporate Leaders Group held during COP30 on the role of business in building climate resilience.
At the event, representatives from the insurance sector highlighted the actions they believe are required on both mitigation and adaptation to address the problem. I then concluded the event by summarising the agreed need for integration, innovation, implementation, and most critically – collaboration. Working together will be key to understanding the risks, developing solutions and addressing and adapting to climate change in an integrated way. We had multiple stakeholders around the table – a range of business, finance, government and civil society representatives, as we know that no one can do this alone – we need to work together.
The same is true of all the countries involved in the COP negotiations. While many global media outlets reported that there had been a failure to reach an ambitious outcome at COP30, it is important to remember the fact that 193 countries, plus the European Union, had delegations at the summit which attracted more than 56,000 attendees in total. It shows that the COP process is not failing. Indeed, since 195 parties signed the historic Paris Agreement a decade ago, agreeing to work to limit global warming below 1.5C, only one country has left – the United States.
The COP process itself has also led to reduced carbon emissions. As part of the Paris Agreement, countries are expected to submit updated plans every five years for how they will reduce their emissions. While many countries are yet to submit their updated plans this year (with some citing a lack of climate funding as a reason), those submitted over the past 10 years have still helped to curb the expected future global warming trajectory. A decade ago, the world was expected to face a catastrophic 4C of average warming by the end of the century, but national climate plans subsequently submitted in support of the Paris Agreement - if delivered in full - have since bent that down to a range between 2.5C and 2.9C, while the latest plans announced just ahead of COP30 lowered this further to 2.3 to 2.5. These plans may not yet contain enough ambition and detail to collectively keep warming to 1.5C, but they have significantly lowered the predicted temperature rise. In short, if it wasn't for the COP process, we would likely be already been facing far greater impacts from climate change than we currently are, with even worse to come.
That is not to say the multilateral COP talks are a smooth process, of course. Ten years since Paris and the world is still collectively agree on the need to tackle some of the biggest issues we face – the transition away from fossil fuels and halting deforestation - which were at the centre of heated discussions at COP30 and protests led by local Indigenous groups. Over 80 countries - including oil producers such as Mexico and Brazil, as well as hundreds of major businesses and trade groups - did push hard for a final agreement in that signalled the need for a roadmap to transition away from fossil fuels. They were fiercely opposed however, by a smaller number of countries - thought to include petrostates such as Russia and Saudi Arabia - who blocked the inclusion of any reference to fossil fuels in the final text.
Such an outcome was deeply frustrating, especially for those who had pushed for it. But on the positive side, Brazil's COP30 Presidency made an unprecedented commitment from at the closing plenary at the summit to support the creation two roadmaps: one on the transition away from fossil fuels and the other on reversing deforestation. It was also announced there would be a first-of its-kind summit hosted by Colombia in April focused on the transition away from fossil fuels – a significant development in itself.
So what to make of it all? While COP30 may not have succeeded in achieving the most ambitious outcome, it still demonstrated that the process is alive, with many countries, businesses and other key stakeholders all reinforcing they commitment to a transition that is already underway. Ahead of COP30, I had heard many express the need to do 'fewer bigger things that deliver greater impact' in the fight against climate change, and these proposed roadmaps have the potential to deliver that greater impact. Delivering those roadmaps and a better future for all will require collaboration between governments, businesses, and civil society.
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About the author
As Director for CISL's Policy and Systems Change Collaborations Team, Bev leads CISL's UK policy (she is Director for the UK Corporate Leaders Group), international policy, and business and nature work. With over 20 years’ experience as a sustainability professional, she leads a team that develops high impact, systemic solutions to drive policy and industrial change towards a climate neutral, nature positive and socially inclusive economy.
Disclaimer
The opinions expressed here are those of the authors and do not represent an official position of CISL, the University of Cambridge, or any of its individual business partners or clients.