9 November 2026 - Namibia’s emerging oil boom could expose the country to costly international legal disputes, potentially constraining its ability to regulate foreign investment, strengthen environmental protections and pursue future climate policies, a new report by the University of Cambridge Institute for Sustainability Leadership Africa finds.
'The black gold rush in Namibia and its implications for the investor–state dispute settlement' finds that Namibia has eight bilateral investment treaties in force. Many offer foreign investors broad protections but limited safeguards for governments to regulate in the public interest.
Some contain “sunset clauses” extending protection for existing investments for up to 20 years after a treaty is terminated.
These risks come as major offshore oil discoveries attract significant international investment, while Namibia also pursues the production of renewable energy and green hydrogen, as well as its climate commitments.
The report finds that TotalEnergies EP Namibia B.V. and Shell Namibia Upstream B.V. hold petroleum investments through Netherlands-incorporated companies. These investments could fall under the Namibia–Netherlands bilateral investment treaty, which protects natural resource exploration and extraction rights while providing access to international investor-state arbitration.
Namibia could therefore face claims over changes to petroleum licensing, environmental rules or climate policy affecting protected investments.
In Rockhopper Exploration v Italy, an international arbitration tribunal awarded an oil company more than €190 million after Italy restricted offshore drilling on environmental grounds. Although the award was annulled on procedural grounds in 2025, the dispute remains ongoing, illustrating how investment treaties can expose governments to prolonged and costly legal challenges when introducing environmental protections. The report also cites average government legal costs of around US$8 million to defend an investor-state dispute.
Sikho Luthango, Senior Research Associate at CISL Africa and report co-author, said: “Namibia has an extraordinary opportunity to use its natural resources to drive development, but the legal framework governing those investments will shape the country’s choices for decades. The question is not whether investors should be protected, but whether Namibia retains sufficient freedom to act as its economic, environmental and development priorities change.”
The report calls on Namibia to review or renegotiate older investment treaties, strengthen climate and environmental safeguards in new agreements, make petroleum deals more transparent and prioritise domestic institutions for resolving investor disputes.
It argues that reforms should begin before large-scale oil production increases the number and value of investments potentially protected by existing treaties.
Namibia should also use its growing importance in oil, uranium, critical minerals, renewable energy and green hydrogen to negotiate more balanced terms. The aim is to protect investors while preserving Namibia’s freedom to respond to changing climate science, energy markets and development priorities.